Ratings as of Nov 15, 2026The at-large picture, from the mid-major side2026-27

At-Large Watch

Most of our leagues send one team to the NCAA tournament: whoever wins the conference tournament. This is the short list of teams good enough to be in the conversation if they don't, ranked by how strong they are and how kindly the committee has treated their league lately.

The NCAA's NET isn't out yet (it starts in early December). Until then the ranking uses our ratings alone.

Watch rank = S − 10 × C

S: Team strength rank among all 365 D-I teams: our rating rank (averaged with the NET once it's published).
C: The conference's at-large bids per tournament since 2010, recent seasons counting more (a season's weight halves every 4 years).

In the picture: 6Bubble: 5Fringe: 7Auto bid or bust: 93

The ranking

Watch rank 30 or better is in the picture, 31 to 55 is the bubble, 56 to 85 is the fringe. Past 85, the auto bid is the only realistic way in.

#	Team	Our rank	NET	Strength S	Boost	Watch	Zone
1	New MexicoMountain West	29	–	29	−21.0	8.0	In the picture
2	Saint LouisA-10	10	–	10	0	10.0	In the picture
3	Utah StatePac-12	18	–	18	0	18.0	In the picture
4	GonzagaPac-12	20	–	20	0	20.0	In the picture
5	Grand CanyonMountain West	45	–	45	−21.0	24.0	In the picture
6	George WashingtonA-10	28	–	28	0	28.0	In the picture
7	Saint Mary'sWCC	32	–	32	0	32.0	Bubble
8	Wright StateHorizon	38	–	38	0	38.0	Bubble
9	Boise StatePac-12	43	–	43	0	43.0	Bubble
10	WyomingMountain West	71	–	71	−21.0	50.0	Bubble
11	Santa ClaraWCC	55	–	55	0	55.0	Bubble
12	San Diego StPac-12	58	–	58	0	58.0	Fringe
13	NevadaMountain West	79	–	79	−21.0	58.0	Fringe
14	Murray StateMissouri Valley	67	–	67	0	67.0	Fringe
15	VCUA-10	73	–	73	0	73.0	Fringe
16	St. BonaventureA-10	76	–	76	0	76.0	Fringe
17	Rhode IslandA-10	78	–	78	0	78.0	Fringe
18	UCSBBig West	84	–	84	0	84.0	Fringe
19	RichmondA-10	86	–	86	0	86.0	Auto bid or bust
20	UNLVMountain West	112	–	112	−21.0	91.0	Auto bid or bust
21	DavidsonA-10	97	–	97	0	97.0	Auto bid or bust
22	Oregon StPac-12	98	–	98	0	98.0	Auto bid or bust
23	PacificWCC	99	–	99	0	99.0	Auto bid or bust
24	George MasonA-10	100	–	100	0	100.0	Auto bid or bust
25	Texas StatePac-12	101	–	101	0	101.0	Auto bid or bust
26	AkronMAC	104	–	104	−1.8	102.2	Auto bid or bust
27	ValparaisoMissouri Valley	105	–	105	0	105.0	Auto bid or bust
28	Miami (OH)MAC	109	–	109	−1.8	107.2	Auto bid or bust
29	BelmontMissouri Valley	115	–	115	0	115.0	Auto bid or bust
30	Loyola ChicagoA-10	117	–	117	0	117.0	Auto bid or bust
31	Illinois StateMissouri Valley	119	–	119	0	119.0	Auto bid or bust
32	Utah ValleyBig West	120	–	120	0	120.0	Auto bid or bust
33	ToledoMAC	122	–	122	−1.8	120.2	Auto bid or bust
34	Saint Joseph'sA-10	121	–	121	0	121.0	Auto bid or bust
35	UICMissouri Valley	126	–	126	0	126.0	Auto bid or bust
36	Colorado StPac-12	130	–	130	0	130.0	Auto bid or bust
37	Western MichiganMAC	136	–	136	−1.8	134.2	Auto bid or bust
38	Southern IllinoisMissouri Valley	135	–	135	0	135.0	Auto bid or bust
39	FordhamA-10	137	–	137	0	137.0	Auto bid or bust
40	Central MichiganMAC	140	–	140	−1.8	138.2	Auto bid or bust
41	UC IrvineBig West	139	–	139	0	139.0	Auto bid or bust
42	Hawai'iMountain West	162	–	162	−21.0	141.0	Auto bid or bust
43	LipscombASUN	142	–	142	0	142.0	Auto bid or bust
44	UMassMAC	146	–	146	−1.8	144.2	Auto bid or bust
45	OhioMAC	148	–	148	−1.8	146.2	Auto bid or bust
46	SienaMetro	147	–	147	−0.2	146.8	Auto bid or bust
47	Bowling GreenMAC	152	–	152	−1.8	150.2	Auto bid or bust
48	Youngstown StateHorizon	159	–	159	0	159.0	Auto bid or bust
49	Northern IowaMissouri Valley	161	–	161	0	161.0	Auto bid or bust
50	Eastern MichiganMAC	172	–	172	−1.8	170.2	Auto bid or bust
51	PortlandWCC	181	–	181	0	181.0	Auto bid or bust
52	Green BayHorizon	182	–	182	0	182.0	Auto bid or bust
53	Long Beach StBig West	185	–	185	0	185.0	Auto bid or bust
54	West FloridaASUN	186	–	186	0	186.0	Auto bid or bust
55	MilwaukeeHorizon	187	–	187	0	187.0	Auto bid or bust
56	QuinnipiacMetro	188	–	188	−0.2	187.8	Auto bid or bust
57	JacksonvilleASUN	189	–	189	0	189.0	Auto bid or bust
58	PepperdineWCC	190	–	190	0	190.0	Auto bid or bust
59	Cal PolyBig West	191	–	191	0	191.0	Auto bid or bust
60	BradleyMissouri Valley	195	–	195	0	195.0	Auto bid or bust
61	UC San DiegoBig West	197	–	197	0	197.0	Auto bid or bust
62	San José StMountain West	218	–	218	−21.0	197.0	Auto bid or bust
63	San FranciscoWCC	199	–	199	0	199.0	Auto bid or bust
64	CSUNBig West	200	–	200	0	200.0	Auto bid or bust
65	DaytonA-10	201	–	201	0	201.0	Auto bid or bust
66	IonaMetro	204	–	204	−0.2	203.8	Auto bid or bust
67	Seattle UWCC	206	–	206	0	206.0	Auto bid or bust
68	FGCUASUN	207	–	207	0	207.0	Auto bid or bust
69	UC RiversideBig West	210	–	210	0	210.0	Auto bid or bust
70	DrakeMissouri Valley	211	–	211	0	211.0	Auto bid or bust
71	Kent StateMAC	217	–	217	−1.8	215.2	Auto bid or bust
72	San DiegoWCC	216	–	216	0	216.0	Auto bid or bust
73	UC DavisMountain West	243	–	243	−21.0	222.0	Auto bid or bust
74	MaristMetro	224	–	224	−0.2	223.8	Auto bid or bust
75	MerrimackMetro	225	–	225	−0.2	224.8	Auto bid or bust
76	Washington StPac-12	226	–	226	0	226.0	Auto bid or bust
77	Indiana StateMissouri Valley	228	–	228	0	228.0	Auto bid or bust
78	Northern IllinoisHorizon	232	–	232	0	232.0	Auto bid or bust
79	DuquesneA-10	238	–	238	0	238.0	Auto bid or bust
80	LMUWCC	241	–	241	0	241.0	Auto bid or bust
81	QueensASUN	244	–	244	0	244.0	Auto bid or bust
82	CS FullertonBig West	245	–	245	0	245.0	Auto bid or bust
83	DenverWCC	248	–	248	0	248.0	Auto bid or bust
84	La SalleA-10	253	–	253	0	253.0	Auto bid or bust
85	UTEPMountain West	274	–	274	−21.0	253.0	Auto bid or bust
86	CSU BakersfieldBig West	254	–	254	0	254.0	Auto bid or bust
87	Air ForceMountain West	281	–	281	−21.0	260.0	Auto bid or bust
88	Mount St. Mary'sMetro	267	–	267	−0.2	266.8	Auto bid or bust
89	Sacred HeartMetro	269	–	269	−0.2	268.8	Auto bid or bust
90	Fresno StPac-12	271	–	271	0	271.0	Auto bid or bust
91	OaklandHorizon	273	–	273	0	273.0	Auto bid or bust
92	BuffaloMAC	278	–	278	−1.8	276.2	Auto bid or bust
93	IU IndyHorizon	282	–	282	0	282.0	Auto bid or bust
94	Northern KentuckyHorizon	283	–	283	0	283.0	Auto bid or bust
95	Sacramento StBig West	310	–	310	0	310.0	Auto bid or bust
96	EvansvilleMissouri Valley	315	–	315	0	315.0	Auto bid or bust
97	Purdue Fort WayneHorizon	317	–	317	0	317.0	Auto bid or bust
98	Robert MorrisHorizon	318	–	318	0	318.0	Auto bid or bust
99	Ball StateMAC	320	–	320	−1.8	318.2	Auto bid or bust
100	BellarmineASUN	321	–	321	0	321.0	Auto bid or bust
101	North FloridaASUN	333	–	333	0	333.0	Auto bid or bust
102	FairfieldMetro	334	–	334	−0.2	333.8	Auto bid or bust
103	StetsonASUN	341	–	341	0	341.0	Auto bid or bust
104	ManhattanMetro	343	–	343	−0.2	342.8	Auto bid or bust
105	Cleveland StateHorizon	344	–	344	0	344.0	Auto bid or bust
106	NiagaraMetro	347	–	347	−0.2	346.8	Auto bid or bust
107	Cal BaptistBig West	349	–	349	0	349.0	Auto bid or bust
108	Detroit MercyHorizon	350	–	350	0	350.0	Auto bid or bust
109	Saint Peter'sMetro	351	–	351	−0.2	350.8	Auto bid or bust
110	CanisiusMetro	353	–	353	−0.2	352.8	Auto bid or bust
111	RiderMetro	362	–	362	−0.2	361.8	Auto bid or bust

Who gets at-large bids: 2010 to 2026

Every NCAA tournament since 2010 (16 of them; 2020 was canceled). Each column is a year, each brick a bid. The dark brick is the automatic bid, the light ones are at-large picks, First Four included. Leagues are shown as they were that year: the Metro was the MAAC until July 2026.

Mountain West

32 at-large bids · 13 multi-bid years
C = 2.10 · boost 21.0

’10

’11

’12

’13

’14

’15

’16

’17

’18

’19

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

’26

2010 New Mexico, BYU, UNLV · 2011 BYU, UNLV · 2012 San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State · 2013 UNLV, San Diego State, Colorado State, Boise State · 2014 San Diego State · 2015 San Diego State, Boise State · 2018 Nevada · 2019 Nevada · 2021 Utah State · 2022 San Diego State, Colorado State, Wyoming · 2023 Utah State, Boise State, Nevada · 2024 San Diego State, Utah State, Nevada, Boise State, Colorado State · 2025 New Mexico, Utah State, San Diego State

MAC

1 at-large bid · 1 multi-bid year
C = 0.18 · boost 1.8

’10

’11

’12

’13

’14

’15

’16

’17

’18

’19

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

’26

2026 Miami (OH)

Metro

1 at-large bid · 1 multi-bid year
C = 0.02 · boost 0.2

’10

’11

’12

’13

’14

’15

’16

’17

’18

’19

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

’26

2012 Iona

A-10

0 at-large bids · 0 multi-bid years
C = 0.00 · boost 0.0

’10

’11

’12

’13

’14

’15

’16

’17

’18

’19

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

’26

No at-large bids since 2010.

ASUN

0 at-large bids · 0 multi-bid years
C = 0.00 · boost 0.0

’10

’11

’12

’13

’14

’15

’16

’17

’18

’19

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

’26

No at-large bids since 2010.

Big West

0 at-large bids · 0 multi-bid years
C = 0.00 · boost 0.0

’10

’11

’12

’13

’14

’15

’16

’17

’18

’19

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

’26

No at-large bids since 2010.

Horizon

0 at-large bids · 0 multi-bid years
C = 0.00 · boost 0.0

’10

’11

’12

’13

’14

’15

’16

’17

’18

’19

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

’26

No at-large bids since 2010.

Missouri Valley

0 at-large bids · 0 multi-bid years
C = 0.00 · boost 0.0

’10

’11

’12

’13

’14

’15

’16

’17

’18

’19

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

’26

No at-large bids since 2010.

Pac-12

0 at-large bids · 0 multi-bid years
C = 0.00 · boost 0.0

’10

’11

’12

’13

’14

’15

’16

’17

’18

’19

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

’26

No at-large bids since 2010.

WCC

0 at-large bids · 0 multi-bid years
C = 0.00 · boost 0.0

’10

’11

’12

’13

’14

’15

’16

’17

’18

’19

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

’26

No at-large bids since 2010.

Automatic bidAt-large bid

How it works

The ranking is meant to be read at a glance and checked by hand. A team's watch rank is its strength rank, moved up by its league's recent at-large record.

Tournament	Weight
2026	1.00
2025	0.84
2024	0.71
2023	0.59
2022	0.50
2021	0.42
…

Strength. Our ratings solve offense, defense and pace for every D-I team from every box score, adjusted for opponent and venue (the same model as each edition's ratings page). The NCAA's NET joins in once it is published; we average the two ranks.
League boost. A conference that has averaged one at-large bid a year lifts its teams 10 spots. Strong leagues give their teams more chances at the Quadrant 1 wins the committee looks for, and the boost is a simple stand-in for that.
A bigger field. The 2027 tournament grows from 68 teams to 76, so there are about 44 at-large spots instead of 36. The zone lines sit a little lower than they would have last year for that reason.
Recency. A tournament's weight halves every 4 years, so the last few Marches count most.
Know the limits. The Mountain West's at-large record was built largely by San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, Colorado State and Fresno State, who left for the Pac-12 in July 2026. The boost goes by the league's own history, so the Mountain West's may run high this season. Early-season ratings also move a lot week to week.