Five of the top six scorers on Detroit Mercy's 2025-26 team grew up in or around Detroit.
Before the game
Our preview, as it ran before tip ·
Toledo vs. Detroit Mercy prediction: model has Toledo by 11
Toledo visits Detroit Mercy (0-2) at Calihan Hall in Detroit Saturday at 4 PM ET on ESPN+.
Our model makes Toledo a 11.3-point favorite, projecting a 78-67 final, and gives Toledo a 83% chance to win. The betting market has Toledo favored by 10.5 with a total of 153.5. The model leans Toledo -10.5 and Under 153.5.
Players to watch: Ayden Carter of Detroit Mercy, 3.5 points a game; Xavier Istomin-Monroe of Detroit Mercy, 2 points a game; London Maiden of Detroit Mercy, 2 points a game.
What the model said
Projected that morning with only earlier games
TOL 78, DETM 67model score
+11.3model spread (home)
144.9model total
1.7points off the final margin
FavoriteTOL -10.50.8WonUnder 153.58.6Lost
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Leans are against the DraftKings closing line ESPN carries. Season record on the ratings page.
Line and result
Spread (home)
Total
ML home
ML away
Source
Open (first seen)
+9.0
153.0
our snapshots
Latest
+12.0
162.5
11011
-100000
our snapshots (8 books)
Close
+10.5
153.5
425
-575
Draft Kings via ESPN
Margin -13 (home)ATS TOL coveredTotal 157 → over
Travel and rest coming in
Team
Rest days
Miles in
Road streak
Time zone
TOL
non-MAC team, not tracked
DETM
3
234
–
same
Rest is full days off between games. Miles are an estimate from the travel model (see the travel page).
