CSU Bakersfield beat North Dakota State 73-69 on the road in Fargo.
Kjay Bradley led CSU Bakersfield with 22 points. Long Beach, California, native Rob Diaz III had 16 points and 9 rebounds for North Dakota State, a game high on the boards.
CSU Bakersfield covered the closing spread. Our model missed the final margin by 7.5 points.
CSU Bakersfield vs. North Dakota State prediction: model has North Dakota State by 4
CSU Bakersfield visits North Dakota State (2-3) at Scheels Center in Fargo Sunday at 2 PM ET on Summit League Network and WDAY.
Our model makes North Dakota State a 3.5-point favorite, projecting an 84-81 final, and gives North Dakota State a 62% chance to win. The betting market has CSU Bakersfield favored by 2.5 with a total of 138.5. The model leans North Dakota State +2.5 and Over 138.5.
Players to watch: Rob Diaz III of North Dakota State, 12.6 points a game; Riley Massey of North Dakota State, 11.3 points a game; Kaden Tate of North Dakota State, 4 points a game.
North Dakota State is on one day of rest.
What the model said
Projected that morning with only earlier games
CSUB 81, NDSU 84model score
-3.5model spread (home)
164.7model total
7.5points off the final margin
Over 151.513.2Lost
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Leans are against the DraftKings closing line ESPN carries. Season record on the ratings page.
Line and result
Spread (home)
Total
ML home
ML away
Source
Open (first seen)
-4.0
158.0
our snapshots
Latest
+2.5
138.5
170
-201
our snapshots (9 books)
Close
-3.5
151.5
-180
150
DraftKings via ESPN
Margin -4 (home)ATS CSUB coveredTotal 142 → under
Travel and rest coming in
Team
Rest days
Miles in
Road streak
Time zone
CSUB
non-Summit team, not tracked
NDSU
1
0
–
same
Rest is full days off between games. Miles are an estimate from the travel model (see the travel page).
