Texas State vs. UTSA prediction: model has Texas State by 5
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Texas State visits UTSA (2-1) at UTSA Convocation Center in San Antonio Sunday at 8 PM ET on ESPN2.
Our model makes Texas State a 5.2-point favorite, projecting a 78-72 final, and gives Texas State a 67% chance to win. The betting market has Texas State favored by 3.5 with a total of 147.5. The model leans Texas State -3.5 and Over 147.5.
Players to watch: KJ Tenner of UTSA, 14.4 points a game; Isaiah Coleman of UTSA, 10 points a game; Isaiah Watts of UTSA, 8.4 points a game.
Model makes it TXST -5.2; the market says TXST -3.5. That is 1.7 points of daylight toward TXST, a lean lean on the favorite.
Over 147.52.8
Model total 150.3 against a market 147.5: a lean lean to the over by 2.8.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 169 rated American players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
TXST
UTSA
Net rating
+6.0 #101
-6.8 #247
Offense
109.5 #114
102.6 #239
Defense
103.5 #127
109.3 #253
Tempo
69.6 #233
71.3 #117
Games this season
4
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
