Louisville vs. Memphis prediction: model has Louisville by 8
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Louisville visits Memphis (2-1) at FedExForum in Memphis Sunday at 1 PM ET on ESPN.
Our model makes Louisville a 8.3-point favorite, projecting an 89-81 final, and gives Louisville a 75% chance to win. The betting market has Louisville favored by 9.5 with a total of 164. The model leans Memphis +9.5 and Over 164.
Players to watch: Rihards Vavers of Memphis, 16 points a game; Luke Almodovar of Memphis, 12.4 points a game; Corneilous Williams of Memphis, 2.9 points a game.
The model's call
Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 1:33 PM ET
Louisville Cardinals8975% to winMemphis Tigers8125% to win
LOU -8.3model spread
169.8model total
74possessions
LOU -21.5market · 9 books
UnderdogMEM +21.513.2
Model makes it LOU -8.3; the market says LOU -21.5. That is 13.2 points of daylight toward MEM, a big lean on the underdog.
Over 168.51.3
Model total 169.8 against a market 168.5: a slight lean to the over by 1.3.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 169 rated American players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
LOU
MEM
Net rating
+23.4 #22
+6.8 #95
Offense
118.7 #26
117.7 #33
Defense
95.3 #32
111.0 #278
Tempo
71.9 #88
72.0 #82
Games this season
2
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
