Air Force Falcons
Away · model win chance 30%
79
Preview · Sat 11/21, 5 PM ET
· How to watch: ESPN+
· Tickets from $46
· UTSA Convocation Center, San Antonio, TX
· ESPN gamecast ↗
· Game notes (printable)
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The model's call
Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 1:33 PM ETUTSA -6.3model spread
164.8model total
76possessions
No line yet. American lines usually post about a day ahead; once books post, the model's side and total leans show here in color.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall
Isaiah Coleman UTSA · G
+2.7#32 overall in American
Offensive engine
KJ Tenner UTSA · G
+1.3#52 offense in American
Defensive anchor
Isaiah Watts UTSA · G
+0.8#50 defense in American
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 169 rated American players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
| AF | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Net rating | -9.7 #281 | -6.8 #247 |
| Offense | 103.8 #214 | 102.6 #239 |
| Defense | 113.4 #318 | 109.3 #253 |
| Tempo | 74.9 #10 | 71.3 #117 |
| Games this season | 4 | 3 |
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
Line, rest and travel
No line posted yet. When American lines post →
| Team | Rest days | Miles in | Time zone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force Falcons | non-American team, not tracked | ||
| UTSA Roadrunners | 2 | 0 | same |
Miles are an estimate from the travel model.