Cincinnati rolled past Dayton 95-72 on the road in Dayton.
Riley Allenspach led Cincinnati with 20 points. Amal L'Etang had 19 points for Dayton. Tyler Tejada led all players with 9 rebounds for Cincinnati.
Cincinnati had 19 fast-break points to Dayton's 6. Cincinnati covered the closing spread. Our model missed the final margin by 17.4 points.
In the NBA, former Dayton player Toumani Camara had 14 points for the Trail Blazers the night before; former Dayton player Obi Toppin had 9 points for the Pacers the night before.
Cincinnati vs. Dayton prediction: model has Cincinnati by 5
Cincinnati visits Dayton (1-2) at UD Arena in Dayton Saturday at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN+ and WHIO-TV.
Our model makes Cincinnati a 5.2-point favorite, projecting a 74-69 final, and gives Cincinnati a 67% chance to win. The betting market has Cincinnati favored by 6 with a total of 147. The model leans Dayton +6.0 and Under 147.
Players to watch: Aiden Derkack of Dayton, 22 points a game; Amal L'Etang of Dayton, 14.9 points a game; Tristian Ford of Dayton, 13 points a game.
What the model said
Projected that morning with only earlier games
CIN 74, DAY 68model score
+5.6model spread (home)
142.3model total
17.4points off the final margin
FavoriteCIN -5.50.1WonUnder 146.54.2Lost
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Leans are against the DraftKings closing line ESPN carries. Season record on the ratings page.
Line and result
Spread (home)
Total
ML home
ML away
Source
Open (first seen)
+6.5
147.0
our snapshots
Latest
+19.0
168.0
49900
-100000
our snapshots (8 books)
Close
+5.5
146.5
220
-270
DraftKings via ESPN
Margin -23 (home)ATS CIN coveredTotal 167 → over
Travel and rest coming in
Team
Rest days
Miles in
Road streak
Time zone
CIN
non-MAC team, not tracked
DAY
3
0
–
same
Rest is full days off between games. Miles are an estimate from the travel model (see the travel page).
