Purdue Fort Wayne vs. Eastern Illinois prediction: model has Eastern Illinois by 3
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Purdue Fort Wayne visits Eastern Illinois (1-3) at Groniger Arena in Charleston Sunday at 3 PM ET on ESPN+.
Our model makes Eastern Illinois a 3.2-point favorite, projecting a 75-72 final, and gives Eastern Illinois a 60% chance to win. The betting market has Purdue Fort Wayne favored by 6.5 with a total of 160. The model leans Eastern Illinois +6.5 and Under 160.
Players to watch: Tanner Vogel of Eastern Illinois, 10 points a game; Daniel Ntambwe of Eastern Illinois, 7 points a game; Devin Davenport of Eastern Illinois, 5.8 points a game.
Model makes it EIU -3.2; the market says PFW -6.5. That is 9.7 points of daylight toward EIU, a big lean on the underdog.
Under 16013.2
Model total 146.8 against a market 160: a big lean to the under by 13.2.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 122 rated OVC players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
PFW
EIU
Net rating
-13.6 #318
-14.5 #327
Offense
98.5 #303
96.9 #315
Defense
112.1 #293
111.4 #283
Tempo
71.5 #101
69.7 #225
Games this season
3
4
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
