Away · model win chance 14%
65
Elon Phoenix
Home · model win chance 86%
78
Preview · Sat 11/21, 7 PM ET · How to watch: FloSports · Schar Center, Elon, NC · ESPN gamecast ↗ · Game notes (printable) · Share this preview

The model's call

Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 4:37 PM ET
Morehead State Eagles 6514% to win Elon Phoenix 7886% to win
ELON -13.1model spread
144.0model total
66possessions

No line yet. OVC lines usually post about a day ahead; once books post, the model's side and total leans show here in color.

OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.

Players to watch

Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 122 rated OVC players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.

Team ratings

MOREELON
Net rating-16.0 #337-1.5 #168
Offense103.3 #220103.3 #218
Defense119.3 #359104.8 #150
Tempo67.7 #31868.4 #291
Games this season44
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.

Line, rest and travel

No line posted yet. When OVC lines post →

TeamRest daysMiles inTime zone
Morehead State Eagles2264+1 h
Elon Phoenixnon-OVC team, not tracked
Miles are an estimate from the travel model.