Western Illinois vs. Minnesota prediction: model has Minnesota by 28
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Western Illinois (1-3) visits Minnesota at The Barn by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota in Minneapolis Monday at 8 PM ET on BTN.
Our model makes Minnesota a 27.5-point favorite, projecting an 81-53 final, and gives Minnesota a 99% chance to win. The betting market has Minnesota favored by 36.2 with a total of 138.8. The model leans Western Illinois +36.2 and Under 138.8.
Players to watch: Daivion Traylor of Western Illinois, 14.3 points a game; Danny Stephens of Western Illinois, 13.1 points a game; Davee Flowers of Western Illinois, 7.2 points a game.
Model makes it MINN -27.5; the market says MINN -36.2. That is 8.7 points of daylight toward WIU, a big lean on the underdog.
Under 138.85.0
Model total 133.8 against a market 138.8: a big lean to the under by 5.0.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 122 rated OVC players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
WIU
MINN
Net rating
-18.4 #348
+17.4 #44
Offense
94.9 #331
110.7 #95
Defense
113.3 #317
93.4 #23
Tempo
70.4 #183
66.7 #347
Games this season
4
4
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
