Mercyhurst vs. James Madison prediction: model has James Madison by 13
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Mercyhurst (1-3) visits James Madison at Atlantic Union Bank Center in Harrisonburg Sunday at 4 PM ET on ESPN+.
Our model makes James Madison a 13.4-point favorite, projecting a 75-62 final, and gives James Madison a 87% chance to win. The betting market has James Madison favored by 12 with a total of 138.5. The model leans James Madison -12.0 and Under 138.5.
Players to watch: Hunter Te Ratana of Mercyhurst, 8 points a game; Deraje Agbaosi of Mercyhurst, 7 points a game; Shane Kirker of Mercyhurst, 2.8 points a game.
Mercyhurst is playing its second straight road game.
Model makes it JMU -13.4; the market says JMU -12. That is 1.4 points of daylight toward JMU, a slight lean on the favorite.
Under 138.51.5
Model total 137.0 against a market 138.5: a lean lean to the under by 1.5.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 127 rated NEC players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
MERC
JMU
Net rating
-14.4 #324
+0.2 #154
Offense
92.9 #350
108.5 #125
Defense
107.3 #204
108.3 #225
Tempo
67.2 #336
69.8 #218
Games this season
4
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
