St. Thomas Tommies
Away · model win chance 58%
77
Home · model win chance 42%
74
Preview · Mon 11/16, 7 PM ET · How to watch: NEC Front Row · Brooklyn Athletic Center, Brooklyn, NY · ESPN gamecast ↗ · Game notes (printable) · Share this preview

St. Thomas vs. LIU prediction: model has St. Thomas by 3

By Hardwood Bricks staff ·

St. Thomas visits LIU (0-5) at Brooklyn Athletic Center in Brooklyn Monday at 7 PM ET on NEC Front Row.

Our model makes St. Thomas a 2.6-point favorite, projecting a 77-74 final, and gives St. Thomas a 58% chance to win.

Players to watch: Justin Johnson of LIU, 8.3 points a game; Ryan Bewley of LIU, 4.8 points a game; Tyrell Bowles of LIU, 4.4 points a game.

The model's call

Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 4:39 PM ET
St. Thomas Tommies 7758% to win Long Island University Sharks 7442% to win
STMN -2.6model spread
151.2model total
70possessions

No line yet. NEC lines usually post about a day ahead; once books post, the model's side and total leans show here in color.

OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.

Players to watch

Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 127 rated NEC players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.

Team ratings

STMNLIU
Net rating-1.9 #176-11.0 #292
Offense113.3 #6494.1 #341
Defense115.1 #337105.0 #154
Tempo69.3 #24971.1 #135
Games this season55
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.

Line, rest and travel

No line posted yet. When NEC lines post →

TeamRest daysMiles inTime zone
St. Thomas Tommiesnon-NEC team, not tracked
Long Island University Sharks2165same
Miles are an estimate from the travel model.