New Haven vs. Penn State prediction: model has Penn State by 14
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
New Haven (1-2) visits Penn State at Bryce Jordan Center in University Park Sunday at 4:30 PM ET on Peacock.
Our model makes Penn State a 13.9-point favorite, projecting a 77-63 final, and gives Penn State a 88% chance to win. The betting market has Penn State favored by 24 with a total of 141.5. The model leans New Haven +24.0 and Under 141.5.
Players to watch: Teshaun Steele of New Haven, 12.9 points a game; Zoumana Traore of New Haven, 9.3 points a game; Aidan Losiewicz of New Haven, 4 points a game.
Model makes it PSU -13.9; the market says PSU -24. That is 10.1 points of daylight toward NHVN, a big lean on the underdog.
Under 141.51.1
Model total 140.4 against a market 141.5: a slight lean to the under by 1.1.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 127 rated NEC players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
NHVN
PSU
Net rating
-10.4 #290
+4.7 #115
Offense
94.1 #340
112.8 #67
Defense
104.5 #144
108.0 #220
Tempo
66.5 #350
71.4 #109
Games this season
3
4
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
