Tarleton State vs. Drake prediction: model has Drake by 9
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Tarleton State (3-1) visits Drake at Knapp Center in Des Moines Monday at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN+.
Our model makes Drake a 9.3-point favorite, projecting a 76-67 final, and gives Drake a 78% chance to win. The betting market has Drake favored by 11 with a total of 145.5. The model leans Tarleton State +11.0 and Under 145.5.
Players to watch: Leroy Kelly IV of Tarleton State, 13.5 points a game; TJ Cope of Tarleton State, 10.7 points a game; Trey Harris of Tarleton State, 8.1 points a game.
Tarleton State traveled about 696 miles to Des Moines.
Model makes it DRKE -9.3; the market says DRKE -11. That is 1.7 points of daylight toward TAR, a lean lean on the underdog.
Under 145.52.9
Model total 142.6 against a market 145.5: a lean lean to the under by 2.9.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 114 rated UAC players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
TAR
DRKE
Net rating
-12.3 #306
-4.4 #212
Offense
96.2 #322
104.1 #210
Defense
108.5 #234
108.4 #231
Tempo
70.8 #154
69.0 #269
Games this season
4
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
