Jacksonville Dolphins
Home · model win chance 42%
71
Preview · Sat 11/21, 4 PM ET
· How to watch: ESPN+
· Swisher Gymnasium, Jacksonville, FL
· ESPN gamecast ↗
· Game notes (printable)
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The model's call
Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 4:36 PM ETCARK -2.5model spread
144.9model total
69possessions
No line yet. UAC lines usually post about a day ahead; once books post, the model's side and total leans show here in color.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall
Ty Robinson UCA · G
+4.5#6 overall in UAC
Offensive engine
Harry Beauchamp UCA · G
+0.7#25 offense in UAC
Defensive anchor
Cole McCormick UCA · G
+2.5#12 defense in UAC
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 114 rated UAC players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
| CARK | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| Net rating | +5.9 #107 | -3.2 #189 |
| Offense | 108.5 #128 | 104.2 #209 |
| Defense | 102.6 #110 | 107.4 #206 |
| Tempo | 71.1 #132 | 68.0 #306 |
| Games this season | 4 | 3 |
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
Line, rest and travel
No line posted yet. When UAC lines post →
| Team | Rest days | Miles in | Time zone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Arkansas Bears | 4 | 976 | +1 h |
| Jacksonville Dolphins | non-UAC team, not tracked | ||
Miles are an estimate from the travel model.