Arkansas State Red Wolves
Home · model win chance 97%
89
Preview · Wed 11/18, 8 PM ET
· How to watch: ESPN+
· Tickets from $15
· First National Bank Arena, Jonesboro, AR
· ESPN gamecast ↗
· Game notes (printable)
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The model's call
Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 4:41 PM ETARST -22.6model spread
155.1model total
78possessions
No line yet. SWAC lines usually post about a day ahead; once books post, the model's side and total leans show here in color.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall
Creed Williamson UAPB · F
-3.4#92 overall in SWAC
Offensive engine
Kalli Johnson UAPB · G
-2.6#110 offense in SWAC
Defensive anchor
Harrison Pickett UAPB · G
-0.7#55 defense in SWAC
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 149 rated SWAC players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
| UAPB | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| Net rating | -27.7 #364 | -4.0 #203 |
| Offense | 88.6 #362 | 101.4 #264 |
| Defense | 116.3 #343 | 105.4 #163 |
| Tempo | 73.2 #40 | 74.7 #15 |
| Games this season | 4 | 4 |
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
Line, rest and travel
No line posted yet. When SWAC lines post →
| Team | Rest days | Miles in | Time zone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions | 2 | 1,630 | same |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | non-SWAC team, not tracked | ||
Miles are an estimate from the travel model.