Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. USC prediction: model has USC by 38
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (0-4) visits USC at Galen Center in Los Angeles Sunday at 7 PM ET on B1G+.
Our model makes USC a 37.6-point favorite, projecting a 96-59 final. The betting market has USC favored by 46.5 with a total of 159.5. The model leans Arkansas-Pine Bluff +46.5 and Under 159.5.
Players to watch: Creed Williamson of Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 6.7 points a game; Kalli Johnson of Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 3 points a game; Harrison Pickett of Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 2.7 points a game.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff is on one day of rest and is playing its third straight road game.
Model makes it USC -37.6; the market says USC -46.5. That is 8.9 points of daylight toward UAPB, a big lean on the underdog.
Under 159.54.0
Model total 155.5 against a market 159.5: a strong lean to the under by 4.0.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 149 rated SWAC players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
UAPB
USC
Net rating
-27.7 #364
+16.3 #49
Offense
88.6 #362
113.8 #61
Defense
116.3 #343
97.5 #45
Tempo
73.2 #40
73.2 #39
Games this season
4
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
