Fresno State Bulldogs
Home · model win chance 87%
83
Preview · Fri 11/20, 10 PM ET
· How to watch: YouTube
· Tickets from $27
· Save Mart Center, Fresno, CA
· ESPN gamecast ↗
· Game notes (printable)
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The model's call
Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 4:41 PM ETFRES -13.4model spread
152.7model total
72possessions
No line yet. SWAC lines usually post about a day ahead; once books post, the model's side and total leans show here in color.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall
Marquintez Dixon ALST · F
+0.2#20 overall in SWAC
Offensive engine
Terrance Hampton ALST · F
+1.7#7 offense in SWAC
Defensive anchor
Damarion Bonds ALST · G
+2.2#6 defense in SWAC
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 149 rated SWAC players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
| ALST | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| Net rating | -21.4 #358 | -8.2 #266 |
| Offense | 92.3 #356 | 104.8 #195 |
| Defense | 113.7 #323 | 113.0 #306 |
| Tempo | 71.2 #125 | 71.2 #128 |
| Games this season | 3 | 4 |
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
Line, rest and travel
No line posted yet. When SWAC lines post →
| Team | Rest days | Miles in | Time zone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama State Hornets | 2 | 164 | -2 h |
| Fresno State Bulldogs | non-SWAC team, not tracked | ||
Miles are an estimate from the travel model.