Alabama State vs. San José St prediction: model has San José St by 16
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Alabama State (1-2) visits San José St at Provident Credit Union Event Center in San Jose Sunday at 9 PM ET on MW+.
Our model makes San José St a 15.8-point favorite, projecting an 87-71 final, and gives San José St a 90% chance to win. The betting market has San José St favored by 13.5 with a total of 151. The model leans San José St -13.5 and Over 151.
Players to watch: Terrance Hampton of Alabama State, 11.8 points a game; Damarion Bonds of Alabama State, 6.7 points a game; Marquintez Dixon of Alabama State, 2.6 points a game.
Alabama State traveled about 2,035 miles to San Jose and crossed 2.0 time zones.
Model makes it SJSU -15.8; the market says SJSU -13.5. That is 2.3 points of daylight toward SJSU, a lean lean on the favorite.
Over 1516.6
Model total 157.6 against a market 151: a big lean to the over by 6.6.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 149 rated SWAC players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
ALST
SJSU
Net rating
-21.4 #358
-4.8 #219
Offense
92.3 #356
110.7 #98
Defense
113.7 #323
115.5 #339
Tempo
71.2 #125
70.7 #164
Games this season
3
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
