Away · model win chance 19%
69
Oregon State Beavers
Home · model win chance 81%
79
Preview · Mon 11/16, 9:30 PM ET · How to watch: YouTube · Tickets from $7 · Gill Coliseum, Corvallis, OR · ESPN gamecast ↗ · Game notes (printable) · Share this preview

East Texas A&M vs. Oregon State prediction: model has Oregon State by 11

By Hardwood Bricks staff ·

East Texas A&M (3-1) visits Oregon State at Gill Coliseum in Corvallis Monday at 9:30 PM ET on YouTube.

Our model makes Oregon State a 10.6-point favorite, projecting a 79-69 final, and gives Oregon State a 81% chance to win.

Players to watch: Mohamed Diakite of East Texas A&M, 18 points a game; Gasper Skorjanc of East Texas A&M, 4.3 points a game; Amar Hot of East Texas A&M, 1.8 points a game.

East Texas A&M is playing its second straight road game.

The model's call

Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 4:35 PM ET
East Texas A&M Lions 6919% to win Oregon State Beavers 7981% to win
ORST -10.6model spread
148.0model total
71possessions

No line yet. Southland lines usually post about a day ahead; once books post, the model's side and total leans show here in color.

OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.

Players to watch

Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 160 rated Southland players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.

Team ratings

ETAMORST
Net rating-3.4 #193+6.1 #100
Offense101.3 #265110.4 #102
Defense104.7 #148104.3 #140
Tempo68.9 #27272.2 #72
Games this season44
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.

Line, rest and travel

No line posted yet. When Southland lines post →

TeamRest daysMiles inTime zone
East Texas A&M Lions272-2 h
Oregon State Beaversnon-Southland team, not tracked
Miles are an estimate from the travel model.