Merrimack Warriors
Home · model win chance 55%
71
Preview · Wed 11/18, 7 PM ET
· How to watch: ESPN+
· Tickets from $14
· Lawler Arena, North Andover, MA
· ESPN gamecast ↗
· Game notes (printable)
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The model's call
Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 4:38 PM ETMRMK -1.5model spread
139.8model total
64possessions
No line yet. Patriot lines usually post about a day ahead; once books post, the model's side and total leans show here in color.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall
Michelangelo Oberti BU · F
+3.6#4 overall in Patriot
Offensive engine
Kyrone Alexander BU · G
+2.4#3 offense in Patriot
Defensive anchor
Matai Baptiste BU · F
-0.1#51 defense in Patriot
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 143 rated Patriot players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
| BU | MRMK | |
|---|---|---|
| Net rating | -2.5 #182 | -5.5 #226 |
| Offense | 110.1 #106 | 101.5 #263 |
| Defense | 112.6 #301 | 107.0 #196 |
| Tempo | 68.5 #287 | 65.6 #362 |
| Games this season | 5 | 4 |
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
Line, rest and travel
No line posted yet. When Patriot lines post →
| Team | Rest days | Miles in | Time zone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston University Terriers | 2 | 24 | same |
| Merrimack Warriors | non-Patriot team, not tracked | ||
Miles are an estimate from the travel model.