Alabama State Hornets
Away · model win chance 11%
64
Preview · Tue 11/17, 9 PM ET
· How to watch: MW+
· Tickets from $20
· University Credit Union Center, Davis, CA
· ESPN gamecast ↗
· Game notes (printable)
· Share this preview
The model's call
Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 11:31 AM ETUCD -14.8model spread
141.8model total
74possessions
No line yet. Mountain West lines usually post about a day ahead; once books post, the model's side and total leans show here in color.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall
Veniamin Abosi UCD · F
+3.2#27 overall in Mountain West
Offensive engine
Jalen Stokes UCD · G
-1.6#103 offense in Mountain West
Defensive anchor
Isaiah Chappell UCD · F
+2.6#22 defense in Mountain West
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 130 rated Mountain West players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
| ALST | UCD | |
|---|---|---|
| Net rating | -21.3 #358 | -6.6 #243 |
| Offense | 92.4 #355 | 95.9 #324 |
| Defense | 113.7 #322 | 102.5 #108 |
| Tempo | 71.2 #124 | 72.7 #55 |
| Games this season | 3 | 4 |
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
Line, rest and travel
No line posted yet. When Mountain West lines post →
| Team | Rest days | Miles in | Time zone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama State Hornets | non-MAC team, not tracked | ||
| UC Davis Aggies | 2 | 14 | same |
Miles are an estimate from the travel model.