UC Davis beat Incarnate Word 81-69 at University Credit Union Center.
Naperville, Illinois, native Brayden Fagbemi led UC Davis with 21 points and 9 assists. Godswill Erheriene had 14 points and 11 rebounds for Incarnate Word, a game high on the boards.
UC Davis had 28 fast-break points to Incarnate Word's 4. UC Davis covered the closing spread. Our model missed the final margin by 0.8 points.
Off the court, UC Davis claims Charles M. Rice: UC Davis alumnus Charles M. Rice is a 2020 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine laureate.
Before the game
Our preview, as it ran before tip ·
Incarnate Word at UC Davis preview: model has UC Davis by 10
Incarnate Word visits UC Davis (1-1) at University Credit Union Center in Davis Wednesday at 2 PM ET on MW+.
Our model makes UC Davis a 9.6-point favorite, projecting a 74-64 final, and gives UC Davis a 79% chance to win. The betting market has UC Davis favored by 11.5 with a total of 145.5. The model leans Incarnate Word +11.5 and Under 145.5.
Players to watch: Veniamin Abosi of UC Davis, 14.1 points a game; Jalen Stokes of UC Davis, 13 points a game; Isaiah Chappell of UC Davis, 8 points a game.
What the model said
Projected that morning with only earlier games
UIW 63, UCD 75model score
-11.2model spread (home)
138.1model total
0.8points off the final margin
UnderdogUIW +11.50.3LostUnder 143.55.4Lost
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Leans are against the DraftKings closing line ESPN carries. Season record on the ratings page.
Line and result
Spread (home)
Total
ML home
ML away
Source
Open (first seen)
-10.0
146.0
our snapshots
Latest
-16.5
152.5
-100000
16567
our snapshots (4 books)
Close
-11.5
143.5
-850
575
Draft Kings via ESPN
Margin +12 (home)ATS UCD coveredTotal 150 → over
Travel and rest coming in
Team
Rest days
Miles in
Road streak
Time zone
UIW
non-MAC team, not tracked
UCD
5
0
–
same
Rest is full days off between games. Miles are an estimate from the travel model (see the travel page).
