Alabama State vs. San José St prediction: model has San José St by 16
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Alabama State visits San José St (1-2) at Provident Credit Union Event Center in San Jose Sunday at 9 PM ET on MW+.
Our model makes San José St a 15.7-point favorite, projecting an 87-71 final, and gives San José St a 90% chance to win. The betting market has San José St favored by 13.5 with a total of 153. The model leans San José St -13.5 and Over 153.
Players to watch: KJ Martin Jr. of San José St, 8.9 points a game; Robert Vaihola of San José St, 8.3 points a game; Oliver Kullamae of San José St, 2.9 points a game.
The Event Center sits at 290 South 7th Street on San José State's main campus in downtown San Jose.
Model makes it SJSU -15.7; the market says SJSU -13.5. That is 2.2 points of daylight toward SJSU, a lean lean on the favorite.
Over 1534.6
Model total 157.6 against a market 153: a strong lean to the over by 4.6.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 130 rated Mountain West players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
ALST
SJSU
Net rating
-21.3 #358
-4.8 #218
Offense
92.4 #355
110.7 #97
Defense
113.7 #322
115.5 #337
Tempo
71.2 #124
70.7 #164
Games this season
3
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
