Canisius vs. Buffalo prediction: model has Buffalo by 11
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Canisius visits Buffalo (1-2) at Broadview Arena in Buffalo Sunday at 5:30 PM ET on ESPN+.
Our model makes Buffalo a 11.2-point favorite, projecting an 82-71 final, and gives Buffalo a 82% chance to win. The betting market has Buffalo favored by 14 with a total of 151.5. The model leans Canisius +14.0 and Over 151.5.
Players to watch: Drew Steffe of Buffalo, 17.4 points a game; Antoine Lorick III of Buffalo, 17 points a game; Dylan Ducommun of Buffalo, 7.3 points a game.
Off the court, Buffalo claims Mary Blair Moody: Mary Blair Moody, M.D. 1876, was the first woman to earn a degree from Buffalo's medical school.
The model's call
Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 11:00 AM ET
Canisius Golden Griffins7118% to winBuffalo Bulls8282% to win
BUF -11.2model spread
152.3model total
71possessions
BUF -14market · 10 books
UnderdogCAN +14.02.8
Model makes it BUF -11.2; the market says BUF -14. That is 2.8 points of daylight toward CAN, a lean lean on the underdog.
Over 151.50.8
Model total 152.3 against a market 151.5: a slight lean to the over by 0.8.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 146 rated MAC players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
CAN
BUF
Net rating
-19.6 #353
-9.3 #278
Offense
96.8 #317
101.3 #265
Defense
116.4 #342
110.6 #268
Tempo
69.9 #218
71.9 #86
Games this season
4
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
