Ratings model
Opponent-adjusted, recency-weighted ratings from every D-I game (472 so far this season). Refit Mon Nov 9, 2:31 AM ET. Spreads are from the home team's view.+3.9
home-court edge, points
71.1
average D-I possessions per 40 min
105.6
average points per 100 possessions
9.11 / 8.86
last season: model vs closing line, avg miss on the margin (pts)
10-11
model vs close on MAC games this season (ATS)
MAC power ratings
| D-I | Team | G | Off | Def | Net | Net | Diff / game | Pace | SOS | Ahead | Raw | Prior | Prior wt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | Akron | 1 | 111.9 78 | 101.2 80 | +10.7 | +7.6 | 72.3 99 | -12.7 241 | -6.3 12 | +14.0 | +9.4 | 67% | |
| 109 | Miami (OH) | 2 | 109.7 107 | 103.6 134 | +6.1 | +4.4 | 72.7 80 | -6.0 175 | -4.0 6 | +8.0 | +7.3 | 50% | |
| 121 | Toledo | 3 | 105.8 171 | 101.4 86 | +4.3 | +3.1 | 72.1 108 | +11.5 25 | -0.7 1 | -8.7 | +3.2 | 40% | |
| 135 | Bowling Green | 1 | 105.3 181 | 102.9 120 | +2.5 | +1.8 | 71.9 118 | -6.2 178 | -5.9 11 | +3.0 | +2.0 | 67% | |
| 144 | Ohio | 2 | 109.2 116 | 107.4 219 | +1.8 | +1.3 | 72.1 106 | -5.9 170 | -5.2 10 | +9.5 | -3.5 | 50% | |
| 167 | Kent State | 2 | 109.3 113 | 109.3 262 | +0.1 | +0.0 | 73.0 62 | -21.9 296 | -3.7 5 | +21.0 | +0.6 | 50% | |
| 179 | UMass | 2 | 105.0 192 | 106.5 198 | -1.5 | -1.0 | 69.9 267 | +1.7 96 | -3.3 3 | -2.5 | -1.1 | 50% | |
| 189 | Western Michigan | 3 | 106.3 166 | 108.4 249 | -2.1 | -1.5 | 68.1 344 | -17.7 269 | -4.5 8 | +17.0 | -6.8 | 40% | |
| 205 | Central Michigan | 2 | 104.0 211 | 107.6 227 | -3.7 | -2.6 | 71.1 177 | -31.2 347 | -0.8 2 | +24.0 | -5.9 | 50% | |
| 255 | Eastern Michigan | 2 | 97.9 306 | 104.4 150 | -6.5 | -4.6 | 69.1 306 | +1.9 92 | -3.5 4 | -11.0 | -4.7 | 50% | |
| 294 | Ball State | 2 | 91.2 359 | 101.7 91 | -10.4 | -7.4 | 68.9 318 | -3.8 149 | -5.0 9 | -7.5 | -6.5 | 50% | |
| 298 | Buffalo | 2 | 99.7 284 | 110.4 278 | -10.7 | -7.6 | 71.5 145 | +5.7 47 | -4.1 7 | -23.0 | -2.0 | 50% |
Off/Def/Net are points per 100 possessions; small numbers are D-I ranks. Diff/game turns net rating into points against an average D-I team. Early in the season most of each rating is still last season's (regressed), and it shifts to this season's results as games are played. Non-D-I opponents share one pooled rating.
Offense vs defense
Grey dots are the other D-I teams. Up and to the right is good at both ends. Dashed lines are D-I average.
National top 25 by the model
| # | Team | Net | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Illinois | +35.1 | 125.4 | 90.2 | 73.9 |
| 2 | Duke | +34.9 | 120.3 | 85.5 | 71.9 |
| 3 | Michigan St | +29.5 | 120.3 | 90.8 | 71.4 |
| 4 | Vanderbilt | +28.1 | 115.5 | 87.4 | 70.7 |
| 5 | TCU | +27.8 | 119.5 | 91.7 | 71.7 |
| 6 | Houston | +27.7 | 116.7 | 89.1 | 69.7 |
| 7 | Kansas | +26.5 | 114.2 | 87.7 | 72.4 |
| 8 | Florida | +26.5 | 119.3 | 92.8 | 71.6 |
| 9 | Virginia | +25.0 | 119.5 | 94.5 | 70.9 |
| 10 | Texas | +24.6 | 124.8 | 100.2 | 70.5 |
| 11 | UCLA | +24.1 | 120.4 | 96.2 | 71.1 |
| 12 | Marquette | +24.0 | 112.0 | 88.1 | 70.2 |
| 13 | Gonzaga | +23.5 | 120.6 | 97.0 | 71.6 |
| 14 | UConn | +23.4 | 115.2 | 91.8 | 70.2 |
| 15 | St John's | +22.9 | 118.7 | 95.8 | 72.7 |
| 16 | BYU | +22.1 | 127.3 | 105.2 | 71.8 |
| 17 | Iowa | +21.9 | 116.5 | 94.6 | 66.9 |
| 18 | Louisville | +21.8 | 118.1 | 96.2 | 72.2 |
| 19 | Nebraska | +21.8 | 113.6 | 91.9 | 70.2 |
| 20 | New Mexico | +21.7 | 117.8 | 96.2 | 72.8 |
| 21 | West Virginia | +20.3 | 112.0 | 91.7 | 69.2 |
| 22 | Texas A&M | +20.1 | 114.0 | 93.9 | 75.3 |
| 23 | Ole Miss | +19.9 | 113.9 | 94.0 | 71.7 |
| 24 | Tennessee | +19.9 | 113.1 | 93.2 | 70.0 |
| 25 | Utah State | +19.3 | 114.6 | 95.2 | 71.6 |
A sanity check: if this list looks wrong, so will the MAC numbers.
Upcoming: model vs market
| Tip (ET) | Matchup | Model score | Model spread | Market | Spread lean | Model total | Market | Total lean | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 11/9 6:30 PM | Penn State Schuylkill Nittany Lions at Buffalo Bulls non-D-I | 61-95 | -33.8 | – | – | 155.3 | – | – | 100% |
| Mon 11/9 7 PM | Muskingum Fighting Muskies at Akron Zips non-D-I | 54-105 | -50.7 | – | – | 159.2 | – | – | 100% |
| Mon 11/9 7 PM | Brescia Bearcats at Ball State Cardinals non-D-I | 52-85 | -32.8 | – | – | 137.2 | – | – | 100% |
| Mon 11/9 7 PM | Cleveland State Vikings at Bowling Green Falcons | 70-93 | -22.7 | -13.0 | BGSU -13.0 by 9.7 | 162.8 | 157.5 | Over 157.5 by 5.3 | 97% |
| Tue 11/10 7 PM | Youngstown State Penguins at Central Michigan Chippewas | 74-74 | -0.4 | – | – | 148.5 | – | – | 51% |
| Tue 11/10 7 PM | Wright State Raiders at Toledo Rockets | 81-78 | +2.9 | – | – | 159.9 | – | – | 40% |
| Wed 11/11 6:30 PM | Great Lakes Christian Crusaders at Eastern Michigan Eagles non-D-I | 54-90 | -35.8 | – | – | 144.6 | – | – | 100% |
| Wed 11/11 7 PM | Kent State Golden Flashes at UNC Wilmington Seahawks | 76-82 | -5.9 | – | – | 158.8 | – | – | 69% |
| Wed 11/11 7 PM | UMass Lowell River Hawks at Massachusetts Minutemen | 73-75 | -2.4 | – | – | 147.5 | – | – | 58% |
| Thu 11/12 7 PM | Niagara Purple Eagles at Bowling Green Falcons | 61-80 | -18.9 | – | – | 141.5 | – | – | 94% |
| Thu 11/12 7 PM | Western Michigan Broncos at Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons | 74-75 | -0.7 | – | – | 148.8 | – | – | 52% |
| Fri 11/13 7 PM | Ohio Bobcats at Purdue Boilermakers | 71-83 | -11.8 | – | – | 153.9 | – | – | 84% |
| Fri 11/13 9 PM | Ball State Cardinals at SMU Mustangs | 61-78 | -16.6 | – | – | 138.8 | – | – | 92% |
| Sat 11/14 12 PM | Tulane Green Wave at Akron Zips | 72-91 | -18.4 | – | – | 163.2 | – | – | 94% |
| Sat 11/14 2 PM | Miami (OH) RedHawks at Evansville Purple Aces | 82-71 | +10.9 | – | – | 152.7 | – | – | 18% |
| Sat 11/14 3:30 PM | Central Michigan Chippewas at Northern Kentucky Norse | 79-85 | -5.8 | – | – | 164.5 | – | – | 68% |
| Sat 11/14 4 PM | Toledo Rockets at Detroit Mercy Titans | 79-68 | +11.2 | – | – | 146.2 | – | – | 18% |
| Sun 11/15 4:30 PM | Western Michigan Broncos at Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles | 69-69 | +0.4 | – | – | 138.0 | – | – | 49% |
| Sun 11/15 5:30 PM | Canisius Golden Griffins at Buffalo Bulls | 61-79 | -17.8 | – | – | 140.2 | – | – | 93% |
| Mon 11/16 7 PM | Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Kent State Golden Flashes | 79-88 | -8.4 | – | – | 167.2 | – | – | 76% |
| Tue 11/17 7 PM | Akron Zips at Bucknell Bison | 88-68 | +19.1 | – | – | 155.8 | – | – | 6% |
| Tue 11/17 7 PM | Ball State Cardinals at Florida State Seminoles | 62-84 | -22.6 | – | – | 146.1 | – | – | 97% |
| Tue 11/17 7 PM | Bowling Green Falcons at William & Mary Tribe | 79-82 | -2.6 | – | – | 161.4 | – | – | 59% |
| Tue 11/17 7 PM | Central Michigan Chippewas at Dayton Flyers | 68-77 | -9.3 | – | – | 145.3 | – | – | 78% |
| Tue 11/17 7:30 PM | Bryant Bulldogs at Massachusetts Minutemen | 62-74 | -11.6 | – | – | 135.6 | – | – | 83% |
| Wed 11/18 6:30 PM | Detroit Mercy Titans at Eastern Michigan Eagles | 63-74 | -10.8 | – | – | 136.7 | – | – | 82% |
| Wed 11/18 7 PM | Defiance Yellow Jackets at Miami (OH) RedHawks non-D-I | 56-104 | -47.4 | – | – | 160.2 | – | – | 100% |
| Wed 11/18 7 PM | Morehead State Eagles at Ohio Bobcats | 71-87 | -16.1 | – | – | 158.5 | – | – | 91% |
Market is the median across US books from our latest snapshot (Pinnacle when it is posted). Highlighted leans are 3+ points off the market. Win % is the home team's. Lines for MAC games usually post about a day ahead, so most rows show only the model until then. Each run's numbers are logged, so later we can see whether lines move toward the model.
This season so far: model before tip vs close vs result
Average miss on the margin: model 8.5 vs closing line 8.6 (21 games with a line)
Model side vs close: 10-11
Model total vs close: 15-6
| Date | Game | Final | Model | Close | Model side | Model tot | Close tot | Model O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-08 | Campbell at Western Michigan | 71-87 | -1.3 | -4.5 | L +3.2 | 145.8 | 151.5 | L -5.7 |
| 11-07 | Bellarmine at Miami (OH) | 73-80 | -20.8 | -18.5 | L -2.3 | 163.0 | 158.5 | L +4.5 |
| 11-07 | Toledo at Marshall | 81-76 | -7.7 | -1.5 | L -6.2 | 155.8 | 158.5 | W -2.7 |
| 11-07 | NC A&T at Ohio | 70-80 | -10.8 | -15.5 | W +4.7 | 161.2 | 161.5 | W -0.3 |
| 11-07 | Eastern Michigan at Xavier | 53-76 | -16.4 | -23.5 | W +7.1 | 151.4 | 151.5 | W -0.1 |
| 11-07 | Indiana St at Ball State | 69-66 | -2.3 | -1.5 | L -0.8 | 133.3 | 146.5 | W -13.2 |
| 11-07 | Alma Scots at Central Michigan | 50-93 | -37.8 | – | – | 158.9 | – | – |
| 11-07 | Roberts Wesleyan Redhawks at Kent State | 50-102 | -41.2 | – | – | 168.9 | – | – |
| 11-06 | UMass at Boston College | 55-71 | -0.3 | -5.5 | L +5.2 | 138.1 | 143.5 | W -5.4 |
| 11-06 | Toledo at Michigan St | 61-91 | -18.5 | -25.5 | L +7.0 | 149.7 | 155.5 | W -5.8 |
| 11-06 | Buffalo at Pitt | 61-80 | -16.6 | -17.5 | L +0.9 | 148.9 | 150.5 | W -1.6 |
| 11-06 | Kalamazoo Hornets at Western Michigan | 52-99 | -31.9 | – | – | 150.0 | – | – |
| 11-03 | Akron at Louisiana | 75-61 | +9.1 | +4.5 | W +4.6 | 150.2 | 147.5 | L +2.7 |
| 11-03 | Toledo at Arkansas St | 70-71 | -2.7 | -3.5 | W +0.8 | 162.2 | 165.5 | W -3.3 |
| 11-03 | Ohio at South Alabama | 86-77 | -5.2 | -1.5 | L -3.7 | 150.4 | 154.5 | L -4.1 |
| 11-03 | Central Michigan at UL Monroe | 83-78 | +2.7 | +3.5 | L -0.8 | 158.3 | 151.5 | W +6.8 |
| 11-03 | Kent State at Louisiana Tech | 75-85 | -2.7 | +5.5 | W -8.2 | 147.0 | 144.5 | W +2.5 |
| 11-03 | Buffalo at Marshall | 65-92 | -4.3 | -2.5 | W -1.8 | 161.9 | 155.5 | W +6.4 |
| 11-03 | Western Michigan at Old Dominion | 49-61 | -5.7 | +1.5 | W -7.2 | 157.2 | 154.5 | L +2.7 |
| 11-03 | Eastern Michigan at Coastal | 71-70 | -4.1 | -2.5 | L -1.6 | 141.5 | 142.5 | W -1.0 |
| 11-03 | UMass at Troy | 71-60 | -5.2 | -2.5 | L -2.7 | 152.1 | 154.5 | W -2.4 |
| 11-03 | Miami (OH) at James Madison | 86-77 | +2.4 | -1.5 | W +3.9 | 157.5 | 158.5 | L -1.0 |
| 11-03 | Ball State at GA Southern | 55-67 | -5.8 | +1.5 | W -7.3 | 148.2 | 162.5 | W -14.3 |
| 11-02 | Bowling Green at Georgia St | 76-73 | +3.7 | -3.5 | W +7.2 | 147.9 | 161.5 | W -13.6 |
Each projection uses only games played before that morning. Close is the DraftKings number ESPN shows at tip. "Model side" is whether taking the model's side of the closing number won; the small number is how far the model was off the close.
Backtest: last season (2025-26), day by day
Refit every morning with only earlier games, starting from the season before as a prior, then scored against results and DraftKings closing lines. 6297 D-I games, 4766 with a line; 284 involved a MAC team.
| Games | Model miss (margin) | Close miss | Model miss (total) | Close miss | Model vs close, avg gap | Picks winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All D-I 6297 | 9.11 | 8.86 | 13.68 | 13.34 | 2.04 | 74.0% |
| Involving a MAC team 284 | 8.92 | 8.72 | 14.45 | 14.28 | 2.39 | 77.5% |
| MAC vs MAC 106 | 7.94 | 7.99 | 15.46 | 14.96 | 2.28 | 76.4% |
| November 1569 | 9.79 | 9.77 | 14.26 | 13.54 | 3.07 | 82.8% |
| December 1172 | 9.56 | 8.99 | 13.61 | 13.18 | 3.0 | 79.5% |
| January on 3556 | 8.93 | 8.76 | 13.65 | 13.37 | 1.7 | 68.4% |
Against the spread, by size of disagreement
| Model vs close | All D-I | MAC games |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 pts | 838-796 51.3% | 27-17 61.4% |
| 1-2 pts | 644-642 50.1% | 22-30 42.3% |
| 2-3 pts | 403-442 47.7% | 22-19 53.7% |
| 3-4 pts | 251-221 53.2% | 9-15 37.5% |
| 4-5 pts | 114-123 48.1% | 9-8 52.9% |
| 5-7 pts | 101-84 54.6% | 8-4 66.7% |
| 7+ pts | 55-52 51.4% | 1-1 50.0% |
Totals, by size of disagreement
| Model vs close | All D-I | MAC games |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 pts | 536-549 49.4% | 18-20 47.4% |
| 1-2 pts | 485-459 51.4% | 15-16 48.4% |
| 2-3 pts | 416-439 48.7% | 18-22 45.0% |
| 3-4 pts | 315-314 50.1% | 14-10 58.3% |
| 4-5 pts | 251-245 50.6% | 13-11 54.2% |
| 5-7 pts | 239-249 49.0% | 10-4 71.4% |
| 7+ pts | 147-146 50.2% | 11-13 45.8% |
At -110 you need 52.4% to break even. Closing lines are the hardest number to beat; numbers posted earlier (which we now capture) are softer, and that is where the line-timing study comes in.
How it works
Every D-I game gives three numbers: possessions, and points per 100 possessions for each side. Each team gets an offense, defense and pace rating that together best explain all its games at once, after accounting for who it played and where. Because every opponent's rating is in the same equations, beating a good team counts for more than beating a bad one, and that opponent's rating is in turn set by everyone it played.
Projection for a game: possessions = avg pace + home pace + away pace, then each side's points = possessions × (avg efficiency + its offense + the other side's defense ± home court). Spread is the difference, total is the sum.
Recency: a game's weight halves every 90 days.
Blowouts: margin past 45 pts/100 counts at 70%.
Prior: last season, regressed 20% to average, worth 2.0 games.
Non-D-I games: count 50%, opponents pooled.
Win %: normal with sd 12.0 pts around the projected margin.
Possessions: FGA − OREB + TO + 0.475 × FTA from ESPN box scores.