Cal Poly Mustangs
Home · model win chance 74%
86
Preview · Sat 11/21, 7 PM ET
· How to watch: ESPN+
· Mott Athletics Center, San Luis Obispo, CA
· ESPN gamecast ↗
· Game notes (printable)
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The model's call
Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 4:34 PM ETCP -7.8model spread
164.9model total
71possessions
No line yet. Big Sky lines usually post about a day ahead; once books post, the model's side and total leans show here in color.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall
Tamiel Green NAU · F
+1.7#16 overall in Big Sky
Offensive engine
Lucas Toukam NAU · F
+2.0#14 offense in Big Sky
Defensive anchor
Max Majerle NAU · G
-2.3#109 defense in Big Sky
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 148 rated Big Sky players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
| NAU | CP | |
|---|---|---|
| Net rating | -8.8 #270 | -3.3 #190 |
| Offense | 110.8 #94 | 105.2 #183 |
| Defense | 119.6 #360 | 108.5 #235 |
| Tempo | 65.5 #363 | 75.8 #5 |
| Games this season | 4 | 4 |
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
Line, rest and travel
No line posted yet. When Big Sky lines post →
| Team | Rest days | Miles in | Time zone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 3 | 508 | -1 h |
| Cal Poly Mustangs | non-Big Sky team, not tracked | ||
Miles are an estimate from the travel model.