Portland State vs. Saint Mary's prediction: model has Saint Mary's by 19
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Portland State (2-2) visits Saint Mary's at University Credit Union Pavilion in Moraga Monday at 10 PM ET on ESPN+.
Our model makes Saint Mary's a 19.4-point favorite, projecting an 88-69 final, and gives Saint Mary's a 95% chance to win. The betting market has Saint Mary's favored by 17.8 with a total of 150.5. The model leans Saint Mary's -17.8 and Over 150.5.
Players to watch: Jaquay Randolph of Portland State, 17 points a game; Luke Kearney of Portland State, 9.9 points a game; Emil Skytt of Portland State, 4.2 points a game.
Portland State is on one day of rest and is playing its third straight road game.
Model makes it SMC -19.4; the market says SMC -17.8. That is 1.6 points of daylight toward SMC, a lean lean on the favorite.
Over 150.56.4
Model total 156.9 against a market 150.5: a big lean to the over by 6.4.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 148 rated Big Sky players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
PRST
SMC
Net rating
-1.9 #177
+20.2 #31
Offense
105.5 #175
121.4 #14
Defense
107.4 #207
101.1 #80
Tempo
70.8 #157
69.7 #223
Games this season
4
4
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
