Montana vs. Kansas State prediction: model has Kansas State by 8
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Montana (2-2) visits Kansas State at Bramlage Coliseum in Manhattan Monday at 8 PM ET on ESPN+.
Our model makes Kansas State a 8.4-point favorite, projecting an 81-72 final, and gives Kansas State a 76% chance to win. The betting market has Kansas State favored by 15.5 with a total of 155.8. The model leans Montana +15.5 and Under 155.8.
Players to watch: Jordan Clark of Montana, 14.6 points a game; Tyler Thompson of Montana, 9.7 points a game; Clayton Mpiana of Montana, 7 points a game.
Montana is on one day of rest and is playing its second straight road game and traveled about 604 miles to Manhattan and crossed 1.0 time zone.
Model makes it KSU -8.4; the market says KSU -15.5. That is 7.1 points of daylight toward MONT, a big lean on the underdog.
Under 155.82.6
Model total 153.2 against a market 155.8: a lean lean to the under by 2.6.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 148 rated Big Sky players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
MONT
KSU
Net rating
-0.7 #163
+5.2 #112
Offense
100.6 #272
110.4 #104
Defense
101.3 #84
105.2 #160
Tempo
70.8 #155
74.0 #24
Games this season
4
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
