Iona Gaels
Away · model win chance 50%
70
Home · model win chance 50%
69
Preview · Mon 11/16, 6 PM ET · How to watch: ESPN+ · Tickets from $35 · Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena, Baltimore, MD · ESPN gamecast ↗ · Game notes (printable) · Share this preview

Iona vs. UMBC prediction

By Hardwood Bricks staff ·

Iona visits UMBC (2-3) at Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena in Baltimore Monday at 6 PM ET on ESPN+.

Our model calls it a toss-up.

Players to watch: Riley Jacobs of UMBC, 8.9 points a game; Carlos Varela of UMBC, 4.8 points a game; Jovan Ristic of UMBC, 4.6 points a game.

UMBC is on one day of rest.

The model's call

Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 4:38 PM ET
Iona Gaels 7050% to win UMBC Retrievers 6950% to win
IONA -0.1model spread
139.0model total
70possessions

No line yet. America East lines usually post about a day ahead; once books post, the model's side and total leans show here in color.

OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.

Players to watch

Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 112 rated America East players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.

Team ratings

IONAUMBC
Net rating-4.1 #205-9.6 #281
Offense99.5 #28798.1 #305
Defense103.6 #128107.8 #214
Tempo68.6 #28172.2 #75
Games this season55
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.

Line, rest and travel

No line posted yet. When America East lines post →

TeamRest daysMiles inTime zone
Iona Gaelsnon-America East team, not tracked
UMBC Retrievers1 short8same
Miles are an estimate from the travel model.