Quinnipiac vs. Central Connecticut prediction: model has Quinnipiac by 2
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Quinnipiac (2-2) visits Central Connecticut at Detrick Gymnasium in New Britain Sunday at 12 PM ET on NEC Front Row.
Our model makes Quinnipiac a 2.4-point favorite, projecting a 73-71 final, and gives Quinnipiac a 58% chance to win. The betting market has Quinnipiac favored by 3.5 with a total of 136. The model leans Central Connecticut +3.5 and Over 136.
Players to watch: Keith McKnight of Quinnipiac, 11.2 points a game; Tai Turnage of Quinnipiac, 8.8 points a game; Nas Hart of Quinnipiac, 7.5 points a game.
Quinnipiac gained a second in-state league opponent when Sacred Heart joined the conference for the 2024-25 season, the same year Merrimack arrived.
The model's call
Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 11:01 AM ET
Quinnipiac Bobcats7358% to winCentral Connecticut Blue Devils7142% to win
QUIN -2.4model spread
143.9model total
66possessions
QUIN -3.5market · 10 books
UnderdogCCSU +3.51.1
Model makes it QUIN -2.4; the market says QUIN -3.5. That is 1.1 points of daylight toward CCSU, a slight lean on the underdog.
Over 1367.9
Model total 143.9 against a market 136: a big lean to the over by 7.9.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 162 rated Metro players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
QUIN
CCSU
Net rating
-3.1 #188
-12.1 #302
Offense
105.1 #188
101.6 #257
Defense
108.3 #224
113.7 #323
Tempo
70.1 #208
66.6 #349
Games this season
4
4
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
