App State beat Merrimack 63-49 at Rock Hill Sports & Event Center.
Jaylen Colon led App State with 14 points and 4 3-pointers. AJ Lesburt Jr. had 10 points for Merrimack. Rrezon Elezaj led all players with 7 rebounds for App State.
App State covered the closing spread. Our model missed the final margin by 15.3 points.
Ed Murphy, Merrimack's career scoring leader with 2,874 points, averaged 32.0 points in 1976-77 and was drafted by the Atlanta Hawks in 1978.
What the model said
Projected that morning with only earlier games
MRMK 68, APP 66model score
+1.3model spread (home)
134.3model total
15.3points off the final margin
UnderdogAPP +3.52.2WonOver 133.50.8Lost
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Leans are against the DraftKings closing line ESPN carries. Season record on the ratings page.
Line and result
Spread (home)
Total
ML home
ML away
Source
Close
+3.5
133.5
142
-170
DraftKings via ESPN
Margin +14 (home)ATS APP coveredTotal 112 → under
Travel and rest coming in
Team
Rest days
Miles in
Road streak
Time zone
MRMK
–
755
1
same
APP
non-MAC team, not tracked
Rest is full days off between games. Miles are an estimate from the travel model (see the travel page).
