Canisius vs. Buffalo prediction: model has Buffalo by 11
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Canisius (2-2) visits Buffalo at Broadview Arena in Buffalo Sunday at 5:30 PM ET on ESPN+.
Our model makes Buffalo a 11.2-point favorite, projecting an 82-71 final, and gives Buffalo a 82% chance to win. The betting market has Buffalo favored by 14 with a total of 151.5. The model leans Canisius +14.0 and Over 151.5.
Players to watch: Vinny Sigona of Canisius, 9.3 points a game; Nate Fouts of Canisius, 8 points a game; Alex Mack of Canisius, 7.6 points a game.
Teressa Bellissimo is credited with inventing the Buffalo wing in 1964 at the Anchor Bar, which stands at 1047 Main Street, the same street as the Canisius campus.
Model makes it BUF -11.2; the market says BUF -14. That is 2.8 points of daylight toward CAN, a lean lean on the underdog.
Over 151.50.8
Model total 152.3 against a market 151.5: a slight lean to the over by 0.8.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 162 rated Metro players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
CAN
BUF
Net rating
-19.6 #353
-9.3 #278
Offense
96.8 #317
101.3 #265
Defense
116.4 #342
110.6 #268
Tempo
69.9 #218
71.9 #86
Games this season
4
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
