Niagara vs. Iowa State prediction: model has Iowa State by 31
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Niagara (0-3) visits Iowa State at Hilton Coliseum in Ames Sunday at 1 PM ET on ESPN2.
Our model makes Iowa State a 31.1-point favorite, projecting an 85-54 final. The betting market has Iowa State favored by 39.5 with a total of 143.5. The model leans Niagara +39.5 and Under 143.5.
Players to watch: Logan Woods of Niagara, 13.8 points a game; Fidel Rotta of Niagara, 8.1 points a game; Ruey Ruey of Niagara, 6.6 points a game.
Niagara is playing its second straight road game and traveled about 516 miles to Ames and crossed 1.0 time zone.
Basketball shares the winter at Niagara with a hockey team that plays at Dwyer Arena and has reached the NCAA Tournament four times, in 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2013.
Model makes it ISU -31.1; the market says ISU -39.5. That is 8.4 points of daylight toward NIA, a big lean on the underdog.
Under 143.55.0
Model total 138.5 against a market 143.5: a big lean to the under by 5.0.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 162 rated Metro players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
NIA
ISU
Net rating
-18.5 #347
+20.3 #33
Offense
94.7 #333
110.4 #102
Defense
113.2 #311
90.2 #9
Tempo
70.1 #205
70.6 #169
Games this season
3
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
