UC Merced vs. UCSB prediction: model has UCSB by 47
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
UC Merced visits UCSB (3-0) at The Thunderdome in Santa Barbara Sunday at 4 PM ET on ESPN+.
Our model makes UCSB a 47.4-point favorite, projecting a 101-53 final. UC Merced is not a Division I team, so books don't post a line and the model's number is rough.
Players to watch: Aidan Mahaney of UCSB, 11.7 points a game; Eric Dibami of UCSB, 8.2 points a game; Marvin McGhee IV of UCSB, 7.6 points a game.
Earlier UC Santa Barbara players to reach the NBA include Don Ford, John Tschogl, Richard Anderson and Conner Henry.
UCSB is not Division I, so books don't post this one and the model's number is rough (every non-D-I team shares one pooled rating).
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 168 rated Big West players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
UCME
UCSB
Net rating
non-D-I
+9.3 #84
Offense
non-D-I
112.9 #66
Defense
non-D-I
103.6 #129
Tempo
non-D-I
67.3 #333
Games this season
213
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
