CSU Bakersfield vs. North Dakota State prediction: model has North Dakota State by 4
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
CSU Bakersfield (3-0) visits North Dakota State at Scheels Center in Fargo Sunday at 2 PM ET on Summit League Network and WDAY.
Our model makes North Dakota State a 3.5-point favorite, projecting an 84-81 final, and gives North Dakota State a 61% chance to win. The betting market has North Dakota State favored by 4 with a total of 151. The model leans CSU Bakersfield +4.0 and Over 151.
Players to watch: Bryce Cofield of CSU Bakersfield, 12.8 points a game; Petar Ivancic of CSU Bakersfield, 11.9 points a game; Chudi Dioramma of CSU Bakersfield, 8.3 points a game.
CSU Bakersfield is playing its second straight road game and traveled about 538 miles to Fargo and crossed 2.0 time zones.
Cal State Bakersfield opens Big West play Dec. 3 against UC Santa Barbara at the Icardo Center.
Model makes it NDSU -3.5; the market says NDSU -4. That is 0.5 points of daylight toward CSUB, a slight lean on the underdog.
Over 15113.7
Model total 164.7 against a market 151: a big lean to the over by 13.7.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 168 rated Big West players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
CSUB
NDSU
Net rating
-7.6 #254
-8.1 #264
Offense
106.5 #165
107.1 #157
Defense
114.1 #328
115.2 #335
Tempo
72.7 #54
68.8 #276
Games this season
3
5
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
