Cal Poly vs. Montana State prediction: model has Montana State by 9
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Cal Poly (2-2) visits Montana State at Worthington Arena in Bozeman Sunday at 6 PM ET on ESPN+.
Our model makes Montana State a 8.8-point favorite, projecting an 87-78 final, and gives Montana State a 77% chance to win. The betting market has Montana State favored by 6.5 with a total of 166. The model leans Montana State -6.5 and Under 166.
Players to watch: Cayden Ward of Cal Poly, 10 points a game; Austin Goode of Cal Poly, 8.3 points a game; Guzman Vasilic of Cal Poly, 5.7 points a game.
Cal Poly is on one day of rest and is playing its third straight road game.
Cal Poly guard Ben Larson averaged 3.45 steals per game in 1995-96 and was named American West Conference Player of the Year.
Model makes it MTST -8.8; the market says MTST -6.5. That is 2.3 points of daylight toward MTST, a lean lean on the favorite.
Under 1661.6
Model total 164.4 against a market 166: a lean lean to the under by 1.6.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 168 rated Big West players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
CP
MTST
Net rating
-3.2 #191
+3.1 #131
Offense
105.3 #184
110.0 #107
Defense
108.5 #236
106.9 #192
Tempo
75.8 #4
69.7 #227
Games this season
4
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
