The Citadel vs. Clemson prediction: model has Clemson by 13
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
The Citadel (3-1) visits Clemson at Littlejohn Coliseum in Clemson Monday at 7 PM ET on ACC Network.
Our model makes Clemson a 12.7-point favorite, projecting an 82-69 final, and gives Clemson a 85% chance to win. The betting market has Clemson favored by 24.5 with a total of 146.5. The model leans The Citadel +24.5 and Over 146.5.
Players to watch: Aaron Ekwere of The Citadel, 13.9 points a game; Chase Cormier of The Citadel, 8.1 points a game; Ramel Bethea of The Citadel, 4 points a game.
The Citadel is on one day of rest and is playing its second straight road game.
Model makes it CLEM -12.7; the market says CLEM -24.5. That is 11.8 points of daylight toward CIT, a big lean on the underdog.
Over 146.54.4
Model total 150.9 against a market 146.5: a strong lean to the over by 4.4.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 157 rated SoCon players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
CIT
CLEM
Net rating
-10.0 #285
+4.1 #122
Offense
103.0 #224
116.2 #46
Defense
113.0 #306
112.1 #293
Tempo
67.9 #310
67.4 #331
Games this season
4
4
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
