Oregon Ducks
Neutral · model win chance 68%
84
Preview · Thu 11/19, 9 PM ET
· How to watch: BTN
· Tickets from $35
· Moda Center, Portland, OR
· ESPN gamecast ↗
· Game notes (printable)
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The model's call
Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 11:34 AM ETORE -5.8model spread
162.9model total
71possessions
No line yet. Pac-12 lines usually post about a day ahead; once books post, the model's side and total leans show here in color.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall
Xavion Staton ORST · C
+5.1#17 overall in Pac-12
Offensive engine
Legend Smiley ORST · G
+4.0#13 offense in Pac-12
Defensive anchor
DeShawn Gory ORST · F
+2.5#18 defense in Pac-12
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 114 rated Pac-12 players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
| ORST | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| Net rating | +6.2 #98 | +14.2 #62 |
| Offense | 110.5 #101 | 119.7 #21 |
| Defense | 104.3 #139 | 105.4 #165 |
| Tempo | 72.2 #73 | 69.6 #238 |
| Games this season | 4 | 3 |
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
Line, rest and travel
No line posted yet. When Pac-12 lines post →
| Team | Rest days | Miles in | Time zone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon State Beavers | 2 | 72 | same |
| Oregon Ducks | non-MAC team, not tracked | ||
Miles are an estimate from the travel model.