McNeese Cowboys
Away · model win chance 46%
79
Home · model win chance 54%
80
Preview · Sun 11/22, 3:30 PM ET · How to watch: CW · Tickets from $23 · Strahan Arena at the University Events Center, San Marcos, TX · ESPN gamecast ↗ · Game notes (printable) · Share this preview

The model's call

Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 11:34 AM ET
McNeese Cowboys 7946% to win Texas State Bobcats 8054% to win
TXST -1.2model spread
159.7model total
70possessions

No line yet. Pac-12 lines usually post about a day ahead; once books post, the model's side and total leans show here in color.

OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.

Players to watch

Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 114 rated Pac-12 players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.

Team ratings

MCNTXST
Net rating+9.7 #81+6.0 #101
Offense118.8 #25109.5 #114
Defense109.1 #247103.5 #127
Tempo70.5 #17869.6 #233
Games this season34
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.

Line, rest and travel

No line posted yet. When Pac-12 lines post →

TeamRest daysMiles inTime zone
McNeese Cowboysnon-MAC team, not tracked
Texas State Bobcats30same
Miles are an estimate from the travel model.