East Texas A&M Lions
Away · model win chance 19%
69
Home · model win chance 81%
79
Preview · Mon 11/16, 9:30 PM ET · How to watch: YouTube · Tickets from $7 · Gill Coliseum, Corvallis, OR · ESPN gamecast ↗ · Game notes (printable) · Share this preview

East Texas A&M vs. Oregon St prediction: model has Oregon St by 11

By Hardwood Bricks staff ·

East Texas A&M visits Oregon St (4-0) at Gill Coliseum in Corvallis Monday at 9:30 PM ET on YouTube.

Our model makes Oregon St a 10.6-point favorite, projecting a 79-69 final, and gives Oregon St a 81% chance to win.

Players to watch: Legend Smiley of Oregon St, 16.8 points a game; DeShawn Gory of Oregon St, 13.7 points a game; Xavion Staton of Oregon St, 8 points a game.

The model's call

Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 11:03 AM ET
East Texas A&M Lions 6919% to win Oregon State Beavers 7981% to win
ORST -10.6model spread
148.0model total
71possessions

No line yet. Pac-12 lines usually post about a day ahead; once books post, the model's side and total leans show here in color.

OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.

Players to watch

Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 114 rated Pac-12 players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.

Team ratings

ETAMORST
Net rating-3.4 #192+6.2 #98
Offense101.4 #263110.5 #101
Defense104.7 #149104.3 #139
Tempo68.9 #27372.2 #73
Games this season44
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.

Line, rest and travel

No line posted yet. When Pac-12 lines post →

TeamRest daysMiles inTime zone
East Texas A&M Lionsnon-MAC team, not tracked
Oregon State Beavers20same
Miles are an estimate from the travel model.