New Mexico State vs. San Diego St prediction: model has San Diego St by 19
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
New Mexico State and San Diego St (3-0) meet at Frontwave Arena Sunday at 4 PM ET on CW.
Our model makes San Diego St a 18.5-point favorite, projecting an 84-66 final, and gives San Diego St a 94% chance to win. The betting market has San Diego St favored by 12.5 with a total of 144. The model leans San Diego St -12.5 and Over 144.
Players to watch: Latrell Davis of San Diego St, 23 points a game; Tae Simmons of San Diego St, 10.9 points a game; Isaiah Sy of San Diego St, 9.3 points a game.
Model makes it SDSU -18.5; the market says SDSU -12.5. That is 6.0 points of daylight toward SDSU, a big lean on the favorite.
Over 1445.8
Model total 149.8 against a market 144: a big lean to the over by 5.8.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 114 rated Pac-12 players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
NMSU
SDSU
Net rating
-12.1 #300
+14.8 #58
Offense
101.7 #255
114.3 #57
Defense
113.8 #324
99.5 #65
Tempo
68.0 #306
71.3 #116
Games this season
3
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
