Fresno St beat UC Riverside 89-80 at Save Mart Center.
Glendale, Arizona, native Bradey Henige led Fresno St with 21 points and 9 rebounds. Ben Waller had 22 points and 10 rebounds for UC Riverside, a game high on the boards.
Fresno St covered the closing spread. Our model missed the final margin by 11.8 points.
UC Riverside vs. Fresno St prediction: model has UC Riverside by 3
UC Riverside visits Fresno St (2-1) at Save Mart Center in Fresno Saturday at 6 PM ET on YouTube.
Our model makes UC Riverside a 2.8-point favorite, projecting a 74-71 final, and gives UC Riverside a 59% chance to win. The betting market has Fresno St favored by 3 with a total of 146. The model leans UC Riverside +3.0 and Under 146.
Players to watch: Dragos Lungu of Fresno St, 19.1 points a game; Bradey Henige of Fresno St, 15.4 points a game; Roger Fabrega Urpina of Fresno St, 9.6 points a game.
What the model said
Projected that morning with only earlier games
UCR 74, FRES 71model score
+2.8model spread (home)
144.7model total
11.8points off the final margin
UnderdogUCR +3.56.3LostUnder 146.51.8Lost
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Leans are against the DraftKings closing line ESPN carries. Season record on the ratings page.
Line and result
Spread (home)
Total
ML home
ML away
Source
Open (first seen)
-5.0
148.5
our snapshots
Latest
-11.5
165.5
-4938
2526
our snapshots (9 books)
Close
-3.5
146.5
-170
142
DraftKings via ESPN
Margin +9 (home)ATS FRES coveredTotal 169 → over
Travel and rest coming in
Team
Rest days
Miles in
Road streak
Time zone
UCR
non-MAC team, not tracked
FRES
3
0
–
same
Rest is full days off between games. Miles are an estimate from the travel model (see the travel page).
