Boise State vs. Nebraska prediction: model has Nebraska by 6
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Boise State (3-0) and Nebraska meet at Sanford Pentagon Sunday at 1 PM ET on BTN.
Our model makes Nebraska a 6.3-point favorite, projecting an 83-77 final, and gives Nebraska a 70% chance to win. The betting market has Nebraska favored by 10 with a total of 159. The model leans Boise State +10.0 and Over 159.
Players to watch: Damari Wheeler-Thomas of Boise State, 17.3 points a game; Dovydas Butka of Boise State, 15.9 points a game; Spencer Ahrens of Boise State, 15 points a game.
Boise State traveled about 973 miles to Sioux Falls and crossed 1.0 time zone.
Model makes it NEB -6.3; the market says NEB -10. That is 3.7 points of daylight toward BOIS, a strong lean on the underdog.
Over 1590.9
Model total 159.9 against a market 159: a slight lean to the over by 0.9.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 114 rated Pac-12 players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
BOIS
NEB
Net rating
+17.8 #43
+26.5 #12
Offense
119.2 #23
117.8 #32
Defense
101.3 #81
91.3 #15
Tempo
73.5 #35
70.3 #193
Games this season
3
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
