Alabama State Hornets
Away · model win chance 14%
70
Preview · Fri 11/20, 10 PM ET
· How to watch: YouTube
· Tickets from $27
· Save Mart Center, Fresno, CA
· ESPN gamecast ↗
· Game notes (printable)
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The model's call
Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 11:34 AM ETFRES -12.9model spread
152.4model total
72possessions
No line yet. Pac-12 lines usually post about a day ahead; once books post, the model's side and total leans show here in color.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall
Bradey Henige FRES · F
+5.4#13 overall in Pac-12
Offensive engine
Roger Fabrega Urpina FRES · G
+0.6#63 offense in Pac-12
Defensive anchor
Dragos Lungu FRES · G
-0.5#71 defense in Pac-12
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 114 rated Pac-12 players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
| ALST | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| Net rating | -21.3 #358 | -8.8 #271 |
| Offense | 92.4 #355 | 104.6 #200 |
| Defense | 113.7 #322 | 113.4 #316 |
| Tempo | 71.2 #124 | 71.0 #145 |
| Games this season | 3 | 4 |
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
Line, rest and travel
No line posted yet. When Pac-12 lines post →
| Team | Rest days | Miles in | Time zone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama State Hornets | non-MAC team, not tracked | ||
| Fresno State Bulldogs | 1 short | 124 | same |
Miles are an estimate from the travel model.