Columbia vs. Northwestern prediction: model has Northwestern by 8
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Columbia (3-1) visits Northwestern at Welsh-Ryan Arena in Evanston Monday at 8 PM ET on B1G+.
Our model makes Northwestern a 8.4-point favorite, projecting a 75-66 final, and gives Northwestern a 76% chance to win. The betting market has Northwestern favored by 12 with a total of 140.5. The model leans Columbia +12.0 and Over 140.5.
Players to watch: Connor Igoe of Columbia, 11 points a game; Hampton Sanders of Columbia, 8.8 points a game; Douglas Langford of Columbia, 6.2 points a game.
Columbia is playing its second straight road game and traveled about 564 miles to Evanston and crossed 1.0 time zone.
The model's call
Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 2:58 PM ET
Columbia Lions6624% to winNorthwestern Wildcats7576% to win
NU -8.4model spread
141.2model total
66possessions
NU -12market · 1 books
UnderdogCOLU +12.03.6
Model makes it NU -8.4; the market says NU -12. That is 3.6 points of daylight toward COLU, a strong lean on the underdog.
Over 140.50.7
Model total 141.2 against a market 140.5: a slight lean to the over by 0.7.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 127 rated Ivy players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
COLU
NU
Net rating
-1.3 #168
+5.9 #103
Offense
107.2 #157
107.8 #140
Defense
108.5 #236
101.9 #93
Tempo
69.3 #250
67.1 #338
Games this season
4
4
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
