Harvard vs. American University prediction: model has American University by 5
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Harvard (2-2) visits American University at Bender Arena in Washington Sunday at 1 PM ET on ESPN+.
Our model makes American University a 5.1-point favorite, projecting a 66-61 final, and gives American University a 66% chance to win. The betting market has Harvard favored by 4.5 with a total of 143.5. The model leans American University +4.5 and Under 143.5.
Players to watch: Thomas Batties II of Harvard, 15.2 points a game; Tey Barbour of Harvard, 10.1 points a game; Ben Eisendrath of Harvard, 6 points a game.
Harvard is on one day of rest and is playing its second straight road game.
The model's call
Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 2:58 PM ET
Harvard Crimson6134% to winAmerican University Eagles6666% to win
AMER -5.1model spread
127.2model total
63possessions
HARV -4market · 8 books
UnderdogAMER +4.09.1
Model makes it AMER -5.1; the market says HARV -4. That is 9.1 points of daylight toward AMER, a big lean on the underdog.
Under 14012.8
Model total 127.2 against a market 140: a big lean to the under by 12.8.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 127 rated Ivy players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
HARV
AMER
Net rating
-6.3 #236
-3.6 #198
Offense
98.1 #307
103.3 #223
Defense
104.4 #140
106.9 #189
Tempo
64.7 #365
69.0 #266
Games this season
4
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
