New Mexico State vs. San Diego State prediction: model has San Diego State by 19
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
New Mexico State (1-2) and San Diego State meet at Frontwave Arena Sunday at 4 PM ET on CW.
Our model makes San Diego State a 18.5-point favorite, projecting an 84-66 final, and gives San Diego State a 94% chance to win. The betting market has San Diego State favored by 12.5 with a total of 144. The model leans San Diego State -12.5 and Over 144.
Players to watch: Mark Lavrenov of New Mexico State, 16.5 points a game; Jae'Coby Osborne of New Mexico State, 7.7 points a game; Gabe Pickens of New Mexico State, 4.1 points a game.
New Mexico State traveled about 661 miles to Oceanside and crossed 1.0 time zone.
Model makes it SDSU -18.5; the market says SDSU -12.5. That is 6.0 points of daylight toward SDSU, a big lean on the favorite.
Over 1445.8
Model total 149.8 against a market 144: a big lean to the over by 5.8.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 138 rated CUSA players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
NMSU
SDSU
Net rating
-12.1 #301
+14.8 #58
Offense
101.7 #256
114.2 #57
Defense
113.8 #323
99.5 #65
Tempo
68.0 #305
71.2 #116
Games this season
3
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
