Western Kentucky vs. Tulsa prediction: model has Tulsa by 11
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Western Kentucky (3-1) visits Tulsa at Reynolds Center in Tulsa Monday at 7 PM ET on ESPNU.
Our model makes Tulsa a 10.7-point favorite, projecting an 84-73 final, and gives Tulsa a 81% chance to win. The betting market has Tulsa favored by 5 with a total of 159.5. The model leans Tulsa -5.0 and Under 159.5.
Players to watch: Teagan Moore of Western Kentucky, 19.2 points a game; Armelo Boone of Western Kentucky, 10.6 points a game; Emondrek Erkins-Ford of Western Kentucky, 8.1 points a game.
Western Kentucky traveled about 533 miles to Tulsa.
Model makes it TLSA -10.7; the market says TLSA -5. That is 5.7 points of daylight toward TLSA, a big lean on the favorite.
Under 159.52.3
Model total 157.2 against a market 159.5: a lean lean to the under by 2.3.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 138 rated CUSA players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
WKU
TLSA
Net rating
-0.0 #158
+9.4 #83
Offense
102.6 #240
117.6 #34
Defense
102.6 #111
108.1 #220
Tempo
72.0 #81
70.1 #198
Games this season
4
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
