Abilene Christian vs. Missouri State prediction: model has Missouri State by 5
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Abilene Christian visits Missouri State (3-0) at Great Southern Bank Arena in Springfield Monday at 8 PM ET on ESPN+.
Our model makes Missouri State a 5.2-point favorite, projecting a 76-71 final, and gives Missouri State a 67% chance to win. The betting market has Missouri State favored by 7.5 with a total of 146.5. The model leans Abilene Christian +7.5 and Over 146.5.
Players to watch: Trey Williams Jr. of Missouri State, 17.1 points a game; Melakih Cunningham of Missouri State, 12.3 points a game; Christian Thompson of Missouri State, 3 points a game.
Model makes it MOST -5.2; the market says MOST -7.5. That is 2.3 points of daylight toward ACU, a lean lean on the underdog.
Over 146.51.2
Model total 147.7 against a market 146.5: a slight lean to the over by 1.2.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 138 rated CUSA players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
ACU
MOST
Net rating
-12.5 #308
-10.3 #290
Offense
101.8 #255
101.3 #264
Defense
114.3 #329
111.6 #283
Tempo
70.1 #195
68.2 #295
Games this season
3
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
